Today, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey issued an analyst note, which laid out some predictions for the New York-based publisher. Namely, that it will remain profitable even if the next Grand Theft Auto doesn’t come out during its next fiscal year.
His prediction is that it’s that unlikely we’ll see a new GTA in the new year, and will more likely see it releasing in the year 2012 – with projected earnings of $750 million through over 16 million copies, calling it an “enormous earnings event”. Strong expected sales of titles such as L.A. Noire and Max Payne 3 in the year 2011 is also cited as being a strong suit for the publisher.
Hickey believes that Take-Two’s 2011 fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2011, until March 31, 2012, will feature two major game highlights: Max Payne 3 and L.A. Noire. He thinks those two games will lead a software lineup–which may also include the long-delayed Duke Nukem Forever–that can make the company profitable in a year without a GTA or a Red Dead game.
One major reason for the high sales expectations is the increased combined PlayStation 3/Xbox 360 installed based in the US, which he believes will be 41 million units by the end of calendar year 2010. That compares to just 14 million in April 2008, when Grand Theft Auto IV originally came out.